Tennessee Martin

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	306.0
Current RPI:	306
Expected SOS:	305
Current SOS:	305
Current Record:	8-21
Expected Record:	8-21
Current Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-11
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	298
Expected OOC SOS:	305

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-21	306.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	102-91	L	0%
11-12	Illinois (181.0)	B10	A	77-74	L	0%
11-15	North Carolina Central (279.0)	MEAC	H	74-57	W	100%
11-18	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	76-59	L	0%
11-22	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	69-66	L	0%
11-26	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	55-65	L	0%
11-29	LSU (95.0)	SEC	A	84-60	L	0%
12-2	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	66-63	L	0%
12-5	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	78-92	W	100%
12-16	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	A	92-61	L	0%
12-22	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	74-68	W	100%
12-28	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	H	63-60	W	100%
12-30	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	58-65	L	0%
1-4	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	75-69	L	0%
1-6	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	82-68	L	0%
1-11	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	70-78	L	0%
1-13	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	67-71	L	0%
1-18	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	A	80-60	L	0%
1-20	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	69-70	W	100%
1-25	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	63-67	W	100%
1-27	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	63-55	L	0%
2-1	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	H	57-59	L	0%
2-3	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	53-66	L	0%
2-8	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	A	69-70	W	100%
2-10	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	77-81	L	0%
2-15	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	69-70	L	0%
2-17	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	57-64	L	0%
2-22	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	70-53	L	0%
2-24	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	66-72	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee Martin	OVC	26.25	26.25	30.77	30.77	-10.10	-10.10
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.36	4.36	40.74	40.74	-0.81	-0.81
Austin Peay	OVC	4.32	4.32	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	4.30	4.30	29.63	29.63	-1.75	-1.75
Murray St.	OVC	4.26	4.26	81.48	81.48	2.68	2.68
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	4.24	4.24	28.57	28.57	-1.82	-1.82
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.18	4.18	29.63	29.63	-1.70	-1.70
Morehead St.	OVC	4.17	4.17	16.00	16.00	-2.84	-2.84
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.72	2.72	64.52	64.52	0.79	0.79
Belmont	OVC	2.67	2.67	71.88	71.88	1.17	1.17
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.66	2.66	53.33	53.33	0.18	0.18
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.60	2.60	48.15	48.15	-0.10	-0.10
Marshall	CUSA	1.99	1.99	68.75	68.75	0.74	0.74
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.92	1.92	53.33	53.33	0.13	0.13
Southern	SWAC	1.88	1.88	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Illinois	B10	1.86	1.86	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Chattanooga	SC	1.86	1.86	23.33	23.33	-0.99	-0.99
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.81	1.81	41.18	41.18	-0.32	-0.32
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.81	1.81	64.52	64.52	0.52	0.52
UMKC	WAC	1.78	1.78	25.00	25.00	-0.89	-0.89
Akron	MAC	1.78	1.78	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
LSU	SEC	1.78	1.78	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Arkansas St.	SB	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.22	0.22	69.70	69.70	0.09	0.09
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.22	0.22	25.81	25.81	-0.11	-0.11
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
IUPUI	Horz	0.18	0.18	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Lipscomb	ASun	0.17	0.17	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Evansville	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.17	0.17	76.67	76.67	0.09	0.09
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	12.50	12.50	-0.12	-0.12
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.14	0.14	24.24	24.24	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	3.33	3.33	-0.11	-0.11
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01